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30 October 2009
Swine Flu – latest guidance for planners
New evidence in the UK suggests that although the number of cases continues to grow, the pandemic is evolving steadily in the UK and the second peak may be lower than originally thought. The worst-case planning assumptions can therefore be revised downwards.
* The worst-case clinical attack rate across the population as a whole has now been reduced from 30 percent to 12 percent between now and the end of the normal flu season. This means that in the peak week of the pandemic up to 1.5 million people may become ill and 5 percent of people could be absent from work, compared to the 12 percent previously thought possible. It should be noted that this is in addition to normal winter absence rates.
* There is no change to the advice about the duration of illness: around 75 percent of people who become ill will recover within ten days, and those with complications normally between ten and fourteen days.
* Although the new information from experience of the virus to date suggests that we may not see a concentrated second peak, it is vital to remain prepared for the full range of possibilities. Modellers anticipate that swine flu may peak again between the end of October and mid November.
* Although the virus currently remains stable, there is also the possibility that it might mutate in due course into a more aggressive strain, in which case a further wave might be more significant.
16 October 2009
New risk management standard available
ISO 31000 risk management standard goes on sale in Australia from 27 October 2009 and is avalable from Standards Australia. This ends the life cycle of AS 4360. ISO 31000 is essential from a BCM point of view when attempting risk assessments as part of the BCM BIA process.
2 October 2009
Resilience
With a theme of “Risk Management: the road to resilience”, this years Risk Management Institution Australia conference is in accord with latest Business Continuity Management thinking.
For many years the BCI Good Practice Guidelines definition of BCM has highlighted the word “resilience” This word is now taking on a re-vitalising role for BCM in general.
The BCI Good Practice Guidelines is currently under review and a new updated version will appear in early 2010. It should become the base for most BCM programmes and be used as a benchmarking tool.
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